A coin is tossed 7 times. The probability that at least 4 consecutive heads appear is?











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1
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A coin is tossed 7 times. The probability that at least 4
consecutive heads appear is?




I have checked and double checked but I can't figure out which cases I am missing.



Here are the cases:




  1. 4 consecutive heads appear:


$n_1 = dfrac{4!}{3!}= 4$




  1. 5 heads appear


Subcase 1: 4 consecutive heads appear and the other head is separated.



For example: HTTHHHH or THTHHHH



Subcase 1 has $4$ possibilities.



Subcase 2: 5 consecutive heads:



$dfrac{3!}{2!} = 3$



$n_2 = 4+ 3 = 7$




  1. 6 heads appear


There are 6 gaps (including the ends) where we can place the $T$



Let me show those places by G:



GHGHGHHGHGHG



$n_3 = 6$




  1. All heads appear


$n_4 = 1$



$P(text{4 consecutive heads}) = dfrac{n_1+ n_2+ n_3 + n_4}{2^7} = dfrac{18}{2^7} = dfrac{9}{64}$



Please let me know my mistake.










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  • When you consider the six heads, be careful! If you place the T in the middle you won't get any sequence of 4 consecutive heads :)
    – Riccardo Ceccon
    Nov 16 at 11:37










  • Yes @RiccardoCeccon I have taken care of that and then got 6 possibilities.
    – Abcd
    Nov 16 at 11:40















up vote
1
down vote

favorite













A coin is tossed 7 times. The probability that at least 4
consecutive heads appear is?




I have checked and double checked but I can't figure out which cases I am missing.



Here are the cases:




  1. 4 consecutive heads appear:


$n_1 = dfrac{4!}{3!}= 4$




  1. 5 heads appear


Subcase 1: 4 consecutive heads appear and the other head is separated.



For example: HTTHHHH or THTHHHH



Subcase 1 has $4$ possibilities.



Subcase 2: 5 consecutive heads:



$dfrac{3!}{2!} = 3$



$n_2 = 4+ 3 = 7$




  1. 6 heads appear


There are 6 gaps (including the ends) where we can place the $T$



Let me show those places by G:



GHGHGHHGHGHG



$n_3 = 6$




  1. All heads appear


$n_4 = 1$



$P(text{4 consecutive heads}) = dfrac{n_1+ n_2+ n_3 + n_4}{2^7} = dfrac{18}{2^7} = dfrac{9}{64}$



Please let me know my mistake.










share|cite|improve this question
























  • When you consider the six heads, be careful! If you place the T in the middle you won't get any sequence of 4 consecutive heads :)
    – Riccardo Ceccon
    Nov 16 at 11:37










  • Yes @RiccardoCeccon I have taken care of that and then got 6 possibilities.
    – Abcd
    Nov 16 at 11:40













up vote
1
down vote

favorite









up vote
1
down vote

favorite












A coin is tossed 7 times. The probability that at least 4
consecutive heads appear is?




I have checked and double checked but I can't figure out which cases I am missing.



Here are the cases:




  1. 4 consecutive heads appear:


$n_1 = dfrac{4!}{3!}= 4$




  1. 5 heads appear


Subcase 1: 4 consecutive heads appear and the other head is separated.



For example: HTTHHHH or THTHHHH



Subcase 1 has $4$ possibilities.



Subcase 2: 5 consecutive heads:



$dfrac{3!}{2!} = 3$



$n_2 = 4+ 3 = 7$




  1. 6 heads appear


There are 6 gaps (including the ends) where we can place the $T$



Let me show those places by G:



GHGHGHHGHGHG



$n_3 = 6$




  1. All heads appear


$n_4 = 1$



$P(text{4 consecutive heads}) = dfrac{n_1+ n_2+ n_3 + n_4}{2^7} = dfrac{18}{2^7} = dfrac{9}{64}$



Please let me know my mistake.










share|cite|improve this question
















A coin is tossed 7 times. The probability that at least 4
consecutive heads appear is?




I have checked and double checked but I can't figure out which cases I am missing.



Here are the cases:




  1. 4 consecutive heads appear:


$n_1 = dfrac{4!}{3!}= 4$




  1. 5 heads appear


Subcase 1: 4 consecutive heads appear and the other head is separated.



For example: HTTHHHH or THTHHHH



Subcase 1 has $4$ possibilities.



Subcase 2: 5 consecutive heads:



$dfrac{3!}{2!} = 3$



$n_2 = 4+ 3 = 7$




  1. 6 heads appear


There are 6 gaps (including the ends) where we can place the $T$



Let me show those places by G:



GHGHGHHGHGHG



$n_3 = 6$




  1. All heads appear


$n_4 = 1$



$P(text{4 consecutive heads}) = dfrac{n_1+ n_2+ n_3 + n_4}{2^7} = dfrac{18}{2^7} = dfrac{9}{64}$



Please let me know my mistake.







probability






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edited Nov 16 at 11:41

























asked Nov 16 at 11:30









Abcd

2,87311130




2,87311130












  • When you consider the six heads, be careful! If you place the T in the middle you won't get any sequence of 4 consecutive heads :)
    – Riccardo Ceccon
    Nov 16 at 11:37










  • Yes @RiccardoCeccon I have taken care of that and then got 6 possibilities.
    – Abcd
    Nov 16 at 11:40


















  • When you consider the six heads, be careful! If you place the T in the middle you won't get any sequence of 4 consecutive heads :)
    – Riccardo Ceccon
    Nov 16 at 11:37










  • Yes @RiccardoCeccon I have taken care of that and then got 6 possibilities.
    – Abcd
    Nov 16 at 11:40
















When you consider the six heads, be careful! If you place the T in the middle you won't get any sequence of 4 consecutive heads :)
– Riccardo Ceccon
Nov 16 at 11:37




When you consider the six heads, be careful! If you place the T in the middle you won't get any sequence of 4 consecutive heads :)
– Riccardo Ceccon
Nov 16 at 11:37












Yes @RiccardoCeccon I have taken care of that and then got 6 possibilities.
– Abcd
Nov 16 at 11:40




Yes @RiccardoCeccon I have taken care of that and then got 6 possibilities.
– Abcd
Nov 16 at 11:40










3 Answers
3






active

oldest

votes

















up vote
1
down vote



accepted










The component of $n_2$ counting the ways that five heads appear, one of which is separated from the other four, should be 6 rather than 4:
$$text{HTTHHHH THTHHHH}\
text{HTHHHHT THHHHTH}\
text{HHHHTTH HHHHTHT}$$

Thus the probability is $frac{20}{2^7}=frac5{32}$.






share|cite|improve this answer




























    up vote
    0
    down vote













    Here is an alternative approach. Consider the complementary problem: What is the probability that no sequence HHHH appears in the 7 tosses?



    There are $2^7$ possible sequences of seven H/T's, each of which we assume is equally likely. We would like to count the number of sequences which do not contain the pattern HHHH. Let's say $a_{n,i}$ is the number of acceptable sequences of length $n$ that end in a string of $i$ heads, for $n=1,2,3, dots ,7$ and $i=0,1,2,3$. It is clear that $a_{1,0} = a_{1,1} = 1$ and $a_{1,2} = a_{1,3} = 0$. For $n > 1$, a sequence ending in zero H's can always be obtained by adding a T to any sequence of length $n-1$,
    so
    $$a_{n,0} = a_{n-1,0} + a_{n-1,1} + a_{n-1,2} + a_{n-1,3}$$
    For $i >0$, a sequence ending in $i$ H's can only be obtained by adding an H to a sequence ending in $i-1$ H's, so
    $$a_{n,i} = a_{n-1,i-1}$$
    for $i=1,2,3$. These conditions suffice to compute $a_{n,i}$ for $n$ as large as we like,recursively.



    We find $a_{7,0} = 56$, $a_{7,1} = 29$,$a_{7,2} = 15$, and $a_{7,3} = 8$, so the total number of acceptable sequences of length 7 is $56+29+15+8=108$. Therefore the probability of a sequence of 7 H/T's not containing the pattern HHHH is $108/2^7$, and the probability that a sequence does contain the pattern HHHH is
    $$1-frac{108}{2^7}=frac{20}{2^7}$$






    share|cite|improve this answer




























      up vote
      -1
      down vote













      I would split cases in the following way:



      1) Exactly 4 consecutive heads: HHHHTxy, THHHHTx, xyTHHHH, => ten possibilites



      2) Exactly 5 consecutive heads: HHHHHTx, THHHHT, xTHHHH => five possibilities



      3) Exactly 6 consecutive heads: two possibilities, as the 7th flip must be T



      4) Exactly 7 consecutive heads: one possibility



      In total 18 possibilities.






      share|cite|improve this answer





















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        3 Answers
        3






        active

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        3 Answers
        3






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        active

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        up vote
        1
        down vote



        accepted










        The component of $n_2$ counting the ways that five heads appear, one of which is separated from the other four, should be 6 rather than 4:
        $$text{HTTHHHH THTHHHH}\
        text{HTHHHHT THHHHTH}\
        text{HHHHTTH HHHHTHT}$$

        Thus the probability is $frac{20}{2^7}=frac5{32}$.






        share|cite|improve this answer

























          up vote
          1
          down vote



          accepted










          The component of $n_2$ counting the ways that five heads appear, one of which is separated from the other four, should be 6 rather than 4:
          $$text{HTTHHHH THTHHHH}\
          text{HTHHHHT THHHHTH}\
          text{HHHHTTH HHHHTHT}$$

          Thus the probability is $frac{20}{2^7}=frac5{32}$.






          share|cite|improve this answer























            up vote
            1
            down vote



            accepted







            up vote
            1
            down vote



            accepted






            The component of $n_2$ counting the ways that five heads appear, one of which is separated from the other four, should be 6 rather than 4:
            $$text{HTTHHHH THTHHHH}\
            text{HTHHHHT THHHHTH}\
            text{HHHHTTH HHHHTHT}$$

            Thus the probability is $frac{20}{2^7}=frac5{32}$.






            share|cite|improve this answer












            The component of $n_2$ counting the ways that five heads appear, one of which is separated from the other four, should be 6 rather than 4:
            $$text{HTTHHHH THTHHHH}\
            text{HTHHHHT THHHHTH}\
            text{HHHHTTH HHHHTHT}$$

            Thus the probability is $frac{20}{2^7}=frac5{32}$.







            share|cite|improve this answer












            share|cite|improve this answer



            share|cite|improve this answer










            answered Nov 16 at 11:41









            Parcly Taxel

            41k137198




            41k137198






















                up vote
                0
                down vote













                Here is an alternative approach. Consider the complementary problem: What is the probability that no sequence HHHH appears in the 7 tosses?



                There are $2^7$ possible sequences of seven H/T's, each of which we assume is equally likely. We would like to count the number of sequences which do not contain the pattern HHHH. Let's say $a_{n,i}$ is the number of acceptable sequences of length $n$ that end in a string of $i$ heads, for $n=1,2,3, dots ,7$ and $i=0,1,2,3$. It is clear that $a_{1,0} = a_{1,1} = 1$ and $a_{1,2} = a_{1,3} = 0$. For $n > 1$, a sequence ending in zero H's can always be obtained by adding a T to any sequence of length $n-1$,
                so
                $$a_{n,0} = a_{n-1,0} + a_{n-1,1} + a_{n-1,2} + a_{n-1,3}$$
                For $i >0$, a sequence ending in $i$ H's can only be obtained by adding an H to a sequence ending in $i-1$ H's, so
                $$a_{n,i} = a_{n-1,i-1}$$
                for $i=1,2,3$. These conditions suffice to compute $a_{n,i}$ for $n$ as large as we like,recursively.



                We find $a_{7,0} = 56$, $a_{7,1} = 29$,$a_{7,2} = 15$, and $a_{7,3} = 8$, so the total number of acceptable sequences of length 7 is $56+29+15+8=108$. Therefore the probability of a sequence of 7 H/T's not containing the pattern HHHH is $108/2^7$, and the probability that a sequence does contain the pattern HHHH is
                $$1-frac{108}{2^7}=frac{20}{2^7}$$






                share|cite|improve this answer

























                  up vote
                  0
                  down vote













                  Here is an alternative approach. Consider the complementary problem: What is the probability that no sequence HHHH appears in the 7 tosses?



                  There are $2^7$ possible sequences of seven H/T's, each of which we assume is equally likely. We would like to count the number of sequences which do not contain the pattern HHHH. Let's say $a_{n,i}$ is the number of acceptable sequences of length $n$ that end in a string of $i$ heads, for $n=1,2,3, dots ,7$ and $i=0,1,2,3$. It is clear that $a_{1,0} = a_{1,1} = 1$ and $a_{1,2} = a_{1,3} = 0$. For $n > 1$, a sequence ending in zero H's can always be obtained by adding a T to any sequence of length $n-1$,
                  so
                  $$a_{n,0} = a_{n-1,0} + a_{n-1,1} + a_{n-1,2} + a_{n-1,3}$$
                  For $i >0$, a sequence ending in $i$ H's can only be obtained by adding an H to a sequence ending in $i-1$ H's, so
                  $$a_{n,i} = a_{n-1,i-1}$$
                  for $i=1,2,3$. These conditions suffice to compute $a_{n,i}$ for $n$ as large as we like,recursively.



                  We find $a_{7,0} = 56$, $a_{7,1} = 29$,$a_{7,2} = 15$, and $a_{7,3} = 8$, so the total number of acceptable sequences of length 7 is $56+29+15+8=108$. Therefore the probability of a sequence of 7 H/T's not containing the pattern HHHH is $108/2^7$, and the probability that a sequence does contain the pattern HHHH is
                  $$1-frac{108}{2^7}=frac{20}{2^7}$$






                  share|cite|improve this answer























                    up vote
                    0
                    down vote










                    up vote
                    0
                    down vote









                    Here is an alternative approach. Consider the complementary problem: What is the probability that no sequence HHHH appears in the 7 tosses?



                    There are $2^7$ possible sequences of seven H/T's, each of which we assume is equally likely. We would like to count the number of sequences which do not contain the pattern HHHH. Let's say $a_{n,i}$ is the number of acceptable sequences of length $n$ that end in a string of $i$ heads, for $n=1,2,3, dots ,7$ and $i=0,1,2,3$. It is clear that $a_{1,0} = a_{1,1} = 1$ and $a_{1,2} = a_{1,3} = 0$. For $n > 1$, a sequence ending in zero H's can always be obtained by adding a T to any sequence of length $n-1$,
                    so
                    $$a_{n,0} = a_{n-1,0} + a_{n-1,1} + a_{n-1,2} + a_{n-1,3}$$
                    For $i >0$, a sequence ending in $i$ H's can only be obtained by adding an H to a sequence ending in $i-1$ H's, so
                    $$a_{n,i} = a_{n-1,i-1}$$
                    for $i=1,2,3$. These conditions suffice to compute $a_{n,i}$ for $n$ as large as we like,recursively.



                    We find $a_{7,0} = 56$, $a_{7,1} = 29$,$a_{7,2} = 15$, and $a_{7,3} = 8$, so the total number of acceptable sequences of length 7 is $56+29+15+8=108$. Therefore the probability of a sequence of 7 H/T's not containing the pattern HHHH is $108/2^7$, and the probability that a sequence does contain the pattern HHHH is
                    $$1-frac{108}{2^7}=frac{20}{2^7}$$






                    share|cite|improve this answer












                    Here is an alternative approach. Consider the complementary problem: What is the probability that no sequence HHHH appears in the 7 tosses?



                    There are $2^7$ possible sequences of seven H/T's, each of which we assume is equally likely. We would like to count the number of sequences which do not contain the pattern HHHH. Let's say $a_{n,i}$ is the number of acceptable sequences of length $n$ that end in a string of $i$ heads, for $n=1,2,3, dots ,7$ and $i=0,1,2,3$. It is clear that $a_{1,0} = a_{1,1} = 1$ and $a_{1,2} = a_{1,3} = 0$. For $n > 1$, a sequence ending in zero H's can always be obtained by adding a T to any sequence of length $n-1$,
                    so
                    $$a_{n,0} = a_{n-1,0} + a_{n-1,1} + a_{n-1,2} + a_{n-1,3}$$
                    For $i >0$, a sequence ending in $i$ H's can only be obtained by adding an H to a sequence ending in $i-1$ H's, so
                    $$a_{n,i} = a_{n-1,i-1}$$
                    for $i=1,2,3$. These conditions suffice to compute $a_{n,i}$ for $n$ as large as we like,recursively.



                    We find $a_{7,0} = 56$, $a_{7,1} = 29$,$a_{7,2} = 15$, and $a_{7,3} = 8$, so the total number of acceptable sequences of length 7 is $56+29+15+8=108$. Therefore the probability of a sequence of 7 H/T's not containing the pattern HHHH is $108/2^7$, and the probability that a sequence does contain the pattern HHHH is
                    $$1-frac{108}{2^7}=frac{20}{2^7}$$







                    share|cite|improve this answer












                    share|cite|improve this answer



                    share|cite|improve this answer










                    answered Nov 16 at 15:18









                    awkward

                    5,54611021




                    5,54611021






















                        up vote
                        -1
                        down vote













                        I would split cases in the following way:



                        1) Exactly 4 consecutive heads: HHHHTxy, THHHHTx, xyTHHHH, => ten possibilites



                        2) Exactly 5 consecutive heads: HHHHHTx, THHHHT, xTHHHH => five possibilities



                        3) Exactly 6 consecutive heads: two possibilities, as the 7th flip must be T



                        4) Exactly 7 consecutive heads: one possibility



                        In total 18 possibilities.






                        share|cite|improve this answer

























                          up vote
                          -1
                          down vote













                          I would split cases in the following way:



                          1) Exactly 4 consecutive heads: HHHHTxy, THHHHTx, xyTHHHH, => ten possibilites



                          2) Exactly 5 consecutive heads: HHHHHTx, THHHHT, xTHHHH => five possibilities



                          3) Exactly 6 consecutive heads: two possibilities, as the 7th flip must be T



                          4) Exactly 7 consecutive heads: one possibility



                          In total 18 possibilities.






                          share|cite|improve this answer























                            up vote
                            -1
                            down vote










                            up vote
                            -1
                            down vote









                            I would split cases in the following way:



                            1) Exactly 4 consecutive heads: HHHHTxy, THHHHTx, xyTHHHH, => ten possibilites



                            2) Exactly 5 consecutive heads: HHHHHTx, THHHHT, xTHHHH => five possibilities



                            3) Exactly 6 consecutive heads: two possibilities, as the 7th flip must be T



                            4) Exactly 7 consecutive heads: one possibility



                            In total 18 possibilities.






                            share|cite|improve this answer












                            I would split cases in the following way:



                            1) Exactly 4 consecutive heads: HHHHTxy, THHHHTx, xyTHHHH, => ten possibilites



                            2) Exactly 5 consecutive heads: HHHHHTx, THHHHT, xTHHHH => five possibilities



                            3) Exactly 6 consecutive heads: two possibilities, as the 7th flip must be T



                            4) Exactly 7 consecutive heads: one possibility



                            In total 18 possibilities.







                            share|cite|improve this answer












                            share|cite|improve this answer



                            share|cite|improve this answer










                            answered Nov 16 at 12:27









                            Stockfish

                            40226




                            40226






























                                 

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