$n$ players are each dealt two cards — what's the probability that $k$ of them have a pair?
$begingroup$
Each of $nleq26$ players is dealt $2$ cards from a standard $52$-card poker deck. What is $textrm{P}left(n,kright)$, the probability that exactly $k$ of the $n$ players have a pair?
(A pair is a hand like $8 clubsuit, 8 heartsuit$ or $K clubsuit, K diamondsuit$.)
This question was previously asked at Poker.SE without a satisfactory answer: https://poker.stackexchange.com/questions/4087/probability-of-x-pocket-pairs-at-a-table-of-n-people-nlhe
probability combinatorics
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Each of $nleq26$ players is dealt $2$ cards from a standard $52$-card poker deck. What is $textrm{P}left(n,kright)$, the probability that exactly $k$ of the $n$ players have a pair?
(A pair is a hand like $8 clubsuit, 8 heartsuit$ or $K clubsuit, K diamondsuit$.)
This question was previously asked at Poker.SE without a satisfactory answer: https://poker.stackexchange.com/questions/4087/probability-of-x-pocket-pairs-at-a-table-of-n-people-nlhe
probability combinatorics
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
What is a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:03
$begingroup$
So any $2$ of the cards in all the $4$ cards of ace for example are a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:05
$begingroup$
@Haran: Affirmative.
$endgroup$
– user1180576
Dec 27 '18 at 9:10
$begingroup$
Right now I do not believe in the existence of an elegant solution and a closed formula. It has happpened before though that I was wrong in a sortlike disbelief.
$endgroup$
– drhab
Dec 27 '18 at 9:27
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Each of $nleq26$ players is dealt $2$ cards from a standard $52$-card poker deck. What is $textrm{P}left(n,kright)$, the probability that exactly $k$ of the $n$ players have a pair?
(A pair is a hand like $8 clubsuit, 8 heartsuit$ or $K clubsuit, K diamondsuit$.)
This question was previously asked at Poker.SE without a satisfactory answer: https://poker.stackexchange.com/questions/4087/probability-of-x-pocket-pairs-at-a-table-of-n-people-nlhe
probability combinatorics
$endgroup$
Each of $nleq26$ players is dealt $2$ cards from a standard $52$-card poker deck. What is $textrm{P}left(n,kright)$, the probability that exactly $k$ of the $n$ players have a pair?
(A pair is a hand like $8 clubsuit, 8 heartsuit$ or $K clubsuit, K diamondsuit$.)
This question was previously asked at Poker.SE without a satisfactory answer: https://poker.stackexchange.com/questions/4087/probability-of-x-pocket-pairs-at-a-table-of-n-people-nlhe
probability combinatorics
probability combinatorics
edited Dec 27 '18 at 9:06
user1180576
asked Dec 27 '18 at 8:58
user1180576user1180576
244
244
$begingroup$
What is a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:03
$begingroup$
So any $2$ of the cards in all the $4$ cards of ace for example are a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:05
$begingroup$
@Haran: Affirmative.
$endgroup$
– user1180576
Dec 27 '18 at 9:10
$begingroup$
Right now I do not believe in the existence of an elegant solution and a closed formula. It has happpened before though that I was wrong in a sortlike disbelief.
$endgroup$
– drhab
Dec 27 '18 at 9:27
add a comment |
$begingroup$
What is a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:03
$begingroup$
So any $2$ of the cards in all the $4$ cards of ace for example are a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:05
$begingroup$
@Haran: Affirmative.
$endgroup$
– user1180576
Dec 27 '18 at 9:10
$begingroup$
Right now I do not believe in the existence of an elegant solution and a closed formula. It has happpened before though that I was wrong in a sortlike disbelief.
$endgroup$
– drhab
Dec 27 '18 at 9:27
$begingroup$
What is a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:03
$begingroup$
What is a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:03
$begingroup$
So any $2$ of the cards in all the $4$ cards of ace for example are a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:05
$begingroup$
So any $2$ of the cards in all the $4$ cards of ace for example are a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:05
$begingroup$
@Haran: Affirmative.
$endgroup$
– user1180576
Dec 27 '18 at 9:10
$begingroup$
@Haran: Affirmative.
$endgroup$
– user1180576
Dec 27 '18 at 9:10
$begingroup$
Right now I do not believe in the existence of an elegant solution and a closed formula. It has happpened before though that I was wrong in a sortlike disbelief.
$endgroup$
– drhab
Dec 27 '18 at 9:27
$begingroup$
Right now I do not believe in the existence of an elegant solution and a closed formula. It has happpened before though that I was wrong in a sortlike disbelief.
$endgroup$
– drhab
Dec 27 '18 at 9:27
add a comment |
2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
First, let us compute $f(m)$, the number of ways to deal two cards to each of $m$ people which are all pairs. We can do this using a computer as follows. If we further let $f(m,r)$ be the probability that all $m$ people have pairs when dealt from a deck of $4r$ cards, then
$$
f(m,r) = rbinom42big(f(m-1,r-1)+(m-1)f(m-2,r-1)big)
$$
The first summand accounts for ways where the first player gets a pair that no one else has, and the second accounts for ways where some other player also gets that pair. The above recursive equation allows you to compute $f(m)=f(m,13)$ quickly using dynamic programming.
Next, use the generalized principle of inclusion exclusion. Letting $E_i$ be the event that the $i^{th}$ player has a pair, then
begin{align}
P(n,k)
&=sum_{i=0}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{i}{k}binom{n}{i}mathbb P(E_1cap E_2cap dots cap E_i)\
&=sum_{i=0}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{i}{k}binom{n}{i}frac{f(i)}{frac{52!}{2^i(52-2i)!}}
end{align}
You can see this in action here, just click the run button at the top and enter your desired value of $n$.
Also, there is the following "closed form" for $P(n,k)$:
$$
boxed{P(n,k) = binom{n}{k}sum_{i=k}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{n-k}{i-k}frac{2^i(52-2i)!}{52!}cdot i!cdot [x^i](1+6x+3x^2)^{13}}
$$
Here, the notation $[x^i]f(x)$ means the coefficient of $x^i$ in the polynomial $f(x)$.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
The probability that a particular player is dealt a pair is $frac{4-1}{52-1}=frac{1}{17}$ so the expected number of pairs is $frac{n}{17}$
I suspect the distribution is not going to be far away from Binomial with parameters $n$ and $p=frac{1}{17}$. This is not quite correct (for example when $n=26$ the probability of exactly $25$ pairs is $0$ rather than $4.24times 10^{−30}$) but I would be surprised if it were substantially misleading
As an example, here are a couple of simulations of $100000$ million deals to $6$ players
Pairs 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Simulation 1 69459 26065 4094 367 13 2 0
Simulation 2 69675 25918 4063 329 15 0 0
Binomial probability 0.695066 0.260650 0.040727 0.003394 0.000159 0.0000040 0.00000004
and, given the uncertainty of simulation, these do not look noticeably different. The five pocket pairs out of six seen at the link in your link was indeed unlikely
$endgroup$
add a comment |
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2 Answers
2
active
oldest
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2 Answers
2
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
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active
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$begingroup$
First, let us compute $f(m)$, the number of ways to deal two cards to each of $m$ people which are all pairs. We can do this using a computer as follows. If we further let $f(m,r)$ be the probability that all $m$ people have pairs when dealt from a deck of $4r$ cards, then
$$
f(m,r) = rbinom42big(f(m-1,r-1)+(m-1)f(m-2,r-1)big)
$$
The first summand accounts for ways where the first player gets a pair that no one else has, and the second accounts for ways where some other player also gets that pair. The above recursive equation allows you to compute $f(m)=f(m,13)$ quickly using dynamic programming.
Next, use the generalized principle of inclusion exclusion. Letting $E_i$ be the event that the $i^{th}$ player has a pair, then
begin{align}
P(n,k)
&=sum_{i=0}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{i}{k}binom{n}{i}mathbb P(E_1cap E_2cap dots cap E_i)\
&=sum_{i=0}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{i}{k}binom{n}{i}frac{f(i)}{frac{52!}{2^i(52-2i)!}}
end{align}
You can see this in action here, just click the run button at the top and enter your desired value of $n$.
Also, there is the following "closed form" for $P(n,k)$:
$$
boxed{P(n,k) = binom{n}{k}sum_{i=k}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{n-k}{i-k}frac{2^i(52-2i)!}{52!}cdot i!cdot [x^i](1+6x+3x^2)^{13}}
$$
Here, the notation $[x^i]f(x)$ means the coefficient of $x^i$ in the polynomial $f(x)$.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
First, let us compute $f(m)$, the number of ways to deal two cards to each of $m$ people which are all pairs. We can do this using a computer as follows. If we further let $f(m,r)$ be the probability that all $m$ people have pairs when dealt from a deck of $4r$ cards, then
$$
f(m,r) = rbinom42big(f(m-1,r-1)+(m-1)f(m-2,r-1)big)
$$
The first summand accounts for ways where the first player gets a pair that no one else has, and the second accounts for ways where some other player also gets that pair. The above recursive equation allows you to compute $f(m)=f(m,13)$ quickly using dynamic programming.
Next, use the generalized principle of inclusion exclusion. Letting $E_i$ be the event that the $i^{th}$ player has a pair, then
begin{align}
P(n,k)
&=sum_{i=0}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{i}{k}binom{n}{i}mathbb P(E_1cap E_2cap dots cap E_i)\
&=sum_{i=0}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{i}{k}binom{n}{i}frac{f(i)}{frac{52!}{2^i(52-2i)!}}
end{align}
You can see this in action here, just click the run button at the top and enter your desired value of $n$.
Also, there is the following "closed form" for $P(n,k)$:
$$
boxed{P(n,k) = binom{n}{k}sum_{i=k}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{n-k}{i-k}frac{2^i(52-2i)!}{52!}cdot i!cdot [x^i](1+6x+3x^2)^{13}}
$$
Here, the notation $[x^i]f(x)$ means the coefficient of $x^i$ in the polynomial $f(x)$.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
First, let us compute $f(m)$, the number of ways to deal two cards to each of $m$ people which are all pairs. We can do this using a computer as follows. If we further let $f(m,r)$ be the probability that all $m$ people have pairs when dealt from a deck of $4r$ cards, then
$$
f(m,r) = rbinom42big(f(m-1,r-1)+(m-1)f(m-2,r-1)big)
$$
The first summand accounts for ways where the first player gets a pair that no one else has, and the second accounts for ways where some other player also gets that pair. The above recursive equation allows you to compute $f(m)=f(m,13)$ quickly using dynamic programming.
Next, use the generalized principle of inclusion exclusion. Letting $E_i$ be the event that the $i^{th}$ player has a pair, then
begin{align}
P(n,k)
&=sum_{i=0}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{i}{k}binom{n}{i}mathbb P(E_1cap E_2cap dots cap E_i)\
&=sum_{i=0}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{i}{k}binom{n}{i}frac{f(i)}{frac{52!}{2^i(52-2i)!}}
end{align}
You can see this in action here, just click the run button at the top and enter your desired value of $n$.
Also, there is the following "closed form" for $P(n,k)$:
$$
boxed{P(n,k) = binom{n}{k}sum_{i=k}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{n-k}{i-k}frac{2^i(52-2i)!}{52!}cdot i!cdot [x^i](1+6x+3x^2)^{13}}
$$
Here, the notation $[x^i]f(x)$ means the coefficient of $x^i$ in the polynomial $f(x)$.
$endgroup$
First, let us compute $f(m)$, the number of ways to deal two cards to each of $m$ people which are all pairs. We can do this using a computer as follows. If we further let $f(m,r)$ be the probability that all $m$ people have pairs when dealt from a deck of $4r$ cards, then
$$
f(m,r) = rbinom42big(f(m-1,r-1)+(m-1)f(m-2,r-1)big)
$$
The first summand accounts for ways where the first player gets a pair that no one else has, and the second accounts for ways where some other player also gets that pair. The above recursive equation allows you to compute $f(m)=f(m,13)$ quickly using dynamic programming.
Next, use the generalized principle of inclusion exclusion. Letting $E_i$ be the event that the $i^{th}$ player has a pair, then
begin{align}
P(n,k)
&=sum_{i=0}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{i}{k}binom{n}{i}mathbb P(E_1cap E_2cap dots cap E_i)\
&=sum_{i=0}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{i}{k}binom{n}{i}frac{f(i)}{frac{52!}{2^i(52-2i)!}}
end{align}
You can see this in action here, just click the run button at the top and enter your desired value of $n$.
Also, there is the following "closed form" for $P(n,k)$:
$$
boxed{P(n,k) = binom{n}{k}sum_{i=k}^n(-1)^{i-k}binom{n-k}{i-k}frac{2^i(52-2i)!}{52!}cdot i!cdot [x^i](1+6x+3x^2)^{13}}
$$
Here, the notation $[x^i]f(x)$ means the coefficient of $x^i$ in the polynomial $f(x)$.
edited Dec 29 '18 at 22:43
answered Dec 28 '18 at 14:33
Mike EarnestMike Earnest
27.8k22152
27.8k22152
add a comment |
add a comment |
$begingroup$
The probability that a particular player is dealt a pair is $frac{4-1}{52-1}=frac{1}{17}$ so the expected number of pairs is $frac{n}{17}$
I suspect the distribution is not going to be far away from Binomial with parameters $n$ and $p=frac{1}{17}$. This is not quite correct (for example when $n=26$ the probability of exactly $25$ pairs is $0$ rather than $4.24times 10^{−30}$) but I would be surprised if it were substantially misleading
As an example, here are a couple of simulations of $100000$ million deals to $6$ players
Pairs 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Simulation 1 69459 26065 4094 367 13 2 0
Simulation 2 69675 25918 4063 329 15 0 0
Binomial probability 0.695066 0.260650 0.040727 0.003394 0.000159 0.0000040 0.00000004
and, given the uncertainty of simulation, these do not look noticeably different. The five pocket pairs out of six seen at the link in your link was indeed unlikely
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
The probability that a particular player is dealt a pair is $frac{4-1}{52-1}=frac{1}{17}$ so the expected number of pairs is $frac{n}{17}$
I suspect the distribution is not going to be far away from Binomial with parameters $n$ and $p=frac{1}{17}$. This is not quite correct (for example when $n=26$ the probability of exactly $25$ pairs is $0$ rather than $4.24times 10^{−30}$) but I would be surprised if it were substantially misleading
As an example, here are a couple of simulations of $100000$ million deals to $6$ players
Pairs 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Simulation 1 69459 26065 4094 367 13 2 0
Simulation 2 69675 25918 4063 329 15 0 0
Binomial probability 0.695066 0.260650 0.040727 0.003394 0.000159 0.0000040 0.00000004
and, given the uncertainty of simulation, these do not look noticeably different. The five pocket pairs out of six seen at the link in your link was indeed unlikely
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
The probability that a particular player is dealt a pair is $frac{4-1}{52-1}=frac{1}{17}$ so the expected number of pairs is $frac{n}{17}$
I suspect the distribution is not going to be far away from Binomial with parameters $n$ and $p=frac{1}{17}$. This is not quite correct (for example when $n=26$ the probability of exactly $25$ pairs is $0$ rather than $4.24times 10^{−30}$) but I would be surprised if it were substantially misleading
As an example, here are a couple of simulations of $100000$ million deals to $6$ players
Pairs 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Simulation 1 69459 26065 4094 367 13 2 0
Simulation 2 69675 25918 4063 329 15 0 0
Binomial probability 0.695066 0.260650 0.040727 0.003394 0.000159 0.0000040 0.00000004
and, given the uncertainty of simulation, these do not look noticeably different. The five pocket pairs out of six seen at the link in your link was indeed unlikely
$endgroup$
The probability that a particular player is dealt a pair is $frac{4-1}{52-1}=frac{1}{17}$ so the expected number of pairs is $frac{n}{17}$
I suspect the distribution is not going to be far away from Binomial with parameters $n$ and $p=frac{1}{17}$. This is not quite correct (for example when $n=26$ the probability of exactly $25$ pairs is $0$ rather than $4.24times 10^{−30}$) but I would be surprised if it were substantially misleading
As an example, here are a couple of simulations of $100000$ million deals to $6$ players
Pairs 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Simulation 1 69459 26065 4094 367 13 2 0
Simulation 2 69675 25918 4063 329 15 0 0
Binomial probability 0.695066 0.260650 0.040727 0.003394 0.000159 0.0000040 0.00000004
and, given the uncertainty of simulation, these do not look noticeably different. The five pocket pairs out of six seen at the link in your link was indeed unlikely
edited Dec 27 '18 at 10:53
answered Dec 27 '18 at 10:24
HenryHenry
101k482170
101k482170
add a comment |
add a comment |
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$begingroup$
What is a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:03
$begingroup$
So any $2$ of the cards in all the $4$ cards of ace for example are a pair?
$endgroup$
– Haran
Dec 27 '18 at 9:05
$begingroup$
@Haran: Affirmative.
$endgroup$
– user1180576
Dec 27 '18 at 9:10
$begingroup$
Right now I do not believe in the existence of an elegant solution and a closed formula. It has happpened before though that I was wrong in a sortlike disbelief.
$endgroup$
– drhab
Dec 27 '18 at 9:27