Find the probability that “At least one person…” with multiple variables.
$begingroup$
I have a statistics problem and, although I have solved most of it, I am stuck for quite some time in the last question.
Say that there we have a population where the analogy of men to women is θ. Suppose that the probability of a woman being colorblind is $q^2$ and the probability of a man being colorblinf $q$.
Up to now I have found, if choosing one random person, the probability of him/her being colorblind and also that probability of a person being a man, given that he is colorblind. However, now I can't find a way to approach this question:
Suppose we choose two people out of the population radomly. What is the probability that at least one person is colorblind?
I was thinking of approaching it by finding the probability of none being colorblind and then finding its compliment, but I can't figure out how to do this, given that we have a different percentage for men and women. Any help on this would be appreciated.
Thank you!
probability statistics conditional-probability bayes-theorem
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I have a statistics problem and, although I have solved most of it, I am stuck for quite some time in the last question.
Say that there we have a population where the analogy of men to women is θ. Suppose that the probability of a woman being colorblind is $q^2$ and the probability of a man being colorblinf $q$.
Up to now I have found, if choosing one random person, the probability of him/her being colorblind and also that probability of a person being a man, given that he is colorblind. However, now I can't find a way to approach this question:
Suppose we choose two people out of the population radomly. What is the probability that at least one person is colorblind?
I was thinking of approaching it by finding the probability of none being colorblind and then finding its compliment, but I can't figure out how to do this, given that we have a different percentage for men and women. Any help on this would be appreciated.
Thank you!
probability statistics conditional-probability bayes-theorem
$endgroup$
$begingroup$
To be clear, there are $theta$ men for every $1$ woman, correct?
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:20
1
$begingroup$
No, what I mean is P(A)/ P(A') = θ , where A is that the subject is male. (So I guess, men/women= θ)
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:22
$begingroup$
Condition the complement of your event on the number of females sampled: 0, 1, or 2.
$endgroup$
– Laars Helenius
Dec 28 '18 at 22:26
$begingroup$
Why only on females though?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:27
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I have a statistics problem and, although I have solved most of it, I am stuck for quite some time in the last question.
Say that there we have a population where the analogy of men to women is θ. Suppose that the probability of a woman being colorblind is $q^2$ and the probability of a man being colorblinf $q$.
Up to now I have found, if choosing one random person, the probability of him/her being colorblind and also that probability of a person being a man, given that he is colorblind. However, now I can't find a way to approach this question:
Suppose we choose two people out of the population radomly. What is the probability that at least one person is colorblind?
I was thinking of approaching it by finding the probability of none being colorblind and then finding its compliment, but I can't figure out how to do this, given that we have a different percentage for men and women. Any help on this would be appreciated.
Thank you!
probability statistics conditional-probability bayes-theorem
$endgroup$
I have a statistics problem and, although I have solved most of it, I am stuck for quite some time in the last question.
Say that there we have a population where the analogy of men to women is θ. Suppose that the probability of a woman being colorblind is $q^2$ and the probability of a man being colorblinf $q$.
Up to now I have found, if choosing one random person, the probability of him/her being colorblind and also that probability of a person being a man, given that he is colorblind. However, now I can't find a way to approach this question:
Suppose we choose two people out of the population radomly. What is the probability that at least one person is colorblind?
I was thinking of approaching it by finding the probability of none being colorblind and then finding its compliment, but I can't figure out how to do this, given that we have a different percentage for men and women. Any help on this would be appreciated.
Thank you!
probability statistics conditional-probability bayes-theorem
probability statistics conditional-probability bayes-theorem
asked Dec 28 '18 at 22:17
butterflyflyawaybutterflyflyaway
133
133
$begingroup$
To be clear, there are $theta$ men for every $1$ woman, correct?
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:20
1
$begingroup$
No, what I mean is P(A)/ P(A') = θ , where A is that the subject is male. (So I guess, men/women= θ)
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:22
$begingroup$
Condition the complement of your event on the number of females sampled: 0, 1, or 2.
$endgroup$
– Laars Helenius
Dec 28 '18 at 22:26
$begingroup$
Why only on females though?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:27
add a comment |
$begingroup$
To be clear, there are $theta$ men for every $1$ woman, correct?
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:20
1
$begingroup$
No, what I mean is P(A)/ P(A') = θ , where A is that the subject is male. (So I guess, men/women= θ)
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:22
$begingroup$
Condition the complement of your event on the number of females sampled: 0, 1, or 2.
$endgroup$
– Laars Helenius
Dec 28 '18 at 22:26
$begingroup$
Why only on females though?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:27
$begingroup$
To be clear, there are $theta$ men for every $1$ woman, correct?
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:20
$begingroup$
To be clear, there are $theta$ men for every $1$ woman, correct?
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:20
1
1
$begingroup$
No, what I mean is P(A)/ P(A') = θ , where A is that the subject is male. (So I guess, men/women= θ)
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:22
$begingroup$
No, what I mean is P(A)/ P(A') = θ , where A is that the subject is male. (So I guess, men/women= θ)
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:22
$begingroup$
Condition the complement of your event on the number of females sampled: 0, 1, or 2.
$endgroup$
– Laars Helenius
Dec 28 '18 at 22:26
$begingroup$
Condition the complement of your event on the number of females sampled: 0, 1, or 2.
$endgroup$
– Laars Helenius
Dec 28 '18 at 22:26
$begingroup$
Why only on females though?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:27
$begingroup$
Why only on females though?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:27
add a comment |
1 Answer
1
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
Let there be $m$ men and $w$ women (unfortunately, I also have to assume there are also $0$ non-binary people in this population). We have the following:
$$frac m w=thetarightarrow m=theta w$$
Thus, the probabilities of being a man or a woman are:
$$P(man)=frac{m}{m+w}=frac{theta w}{theta w+w}=frac{theta}{theta+1}$$
$$P(woman)=frac{w}{m+w}=frac{w}{theta w+w}=frac{1}{theta+1}$$
Now, we are also given the following:
$$P(colorblind | man)=q^2$$
$$P(colorblind | woman)=q$$
Then, we can use the formula $P(A cap B)=P(B)P(A|B)$ to find the following:
$$P(colorblind cap man)=P(man)P(colorblind | man)=frac{q^2theta}{theta+1}$$
$$P(colorblind cap woman)=P(woman)P(colorblind | woman)=frac{q}{theta+1}$$
Finally, since man and woman are the only two cases in this population, $woman=man^C$—that is, woman is the complement case of man. Thus, we can use the formula $P(A)=P(A cap B)+P(A cap B^C)$ to find:
$$P(colorblind)=P(colorblind cap man)+P(colorblind cap woman)=frac{q^2theta+q}{theta+1}$$
And of course, to find the probability is not colorblind, we use $P(A^C)=1-P(A)$:
$$P(colorblind^C)=1-P(colorblind)=frac{(1-q^2)theta+1-q}{theta+1}$$
Now, the probability that at least one person is colorblind has three cases in it:
- Both people are colorblind -> $P(colorblind)^2$
- First person is colorblind, second person is not -> $P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C)$
- Second person is colorblind, first person is not -> $P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C)$
Thus, to find the total probability of there being one color blind person, we just add up all of these cases:
$$P(at least one colorblind)=P(colorblind)^2+2P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C) \=frac{(q^2theta+q)^2+2(q^2theta+q)(theta(1-q^2)+1-q)}{(theta+1)^2}$$
I'll leave doing the algebra to you. Good luck!
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
To complete the problem, assume the sampling is independent. Then $P(text{at least one colorblind})=1-P(text{not colorblind})^2=1-[1-P(text{colorblind})]^2$
$endgroup$
– M. Nestor
Dec 28 '18 at 22:31
$begingroup$
One more question. This was the answer that I found when I was picking one person and finding the probability of whether he/she is colorblind. So, it remains the same even after I choose two people?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:33
$begingroup$
@butterflyflyaway Sorry, see my new edited answer for the actual, final answer of the probability of at least one person being color blind.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:36
$begingroup$
@M.Nestor This is a valid solution, but it is equivalent to $1-(1-p)^2=1-(p^2+1-2p)=2p-p^2=p^2+2p-2p^2=p^2+2p(1-p)$, which is what I did.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:38
add a comment |
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$begingroup$
Let there be $m$ men and $w$ women (unfortunately, I also have to assume there are also $0$ non-binary people in this population). We have the following:
$$frac m w=thetarightarrow m=theta w$$
Thus, the probabilities of being a man or a woman are:
$$P(man)=frac{m}{m+w}=frac{theta w}{theta w+w}=frac{theta}{theta+1}$$
$$P(woman)=frac{w}{m+w}=frac{w}{theta w+w}=frac{1}{theta+1}$$
Now, we are also given the following:
$$P(colorblind | man)=q^2$$
$$P(colorblind | woman)=q$$
Then, we can use the formula $P(A cap B)=P(B)P(A|B)$ to find the following:
$$P(colorblind cap man)=P(man)P(colorblind | man)=frac{q^2theta}{theta+1}$$
$$P(colorblind cap woman)=P(woman)P(colorblind | woman)=frac{q}{theta+1}$$
Finally, since man and woman are the only two cases in this population, $woman=man^C$—that is, woman is the complement case of man. Thus, we can use the formula $P(A)=P(A cap B)+P(A cap B^C)$ to find:
$$P(colorblind)=P(colorblind cap man)+P(colorblind cap woman)=frac{q^2theta+q}{theta+1}$$
And of course, to find the probability is not colorblind, we use $P(A^C)=1-P(A)$:
$$P(colorblind^C)=1-P(colorblind)=frac{(1-q^2)theta+1-q}{theta+1}$$
Now, the probability that at least one person is colorblind has three cases in it:
- Both people are colorblind -> $P(colorblind)^2$
- First person is colorblind, second person is not -> $P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C)$
- Second person is colorblind, first person is not -> $P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C)$
Thus, to find the total probability of there being one color blind person, we just add up all of these cases:
$$P(at least one colorblind)=P(colorblind)^2+2P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C) \=frac{(q^2theta+q)^2+2(q^2theta+q)(theta(1-q^2)+1-q)}{(theta+1)^2}$$
I'll leave doing the algebra to you. Good luck!
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
To complete the problem, assume the sampling is independent. Then $P(text{at least one colorblind})=1-P(text{not colorblind})^2=1-[1-P(text{colorblind})]^2$
$endgroup$
– M. Nestor
Dec 28 '18 at 22:31
$begingroup$
One more question. This was the answer that I found when I was picking one person and finding the probability of whether he/she is colorblind. So, it remains the same even after I choose two people?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:33
$begingroup$
@butterflyflyaway Sorry, see my new edited answer for the actual, final answer of the probability of at least one person being color blind.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:36
$begingroup$
@M.Nestor This is a valid solution, but it is equivalent to $1-(1-p)^2=1-(p^2+1-2p)=2p-p^2=p^2+2p-2p^2=p^2+2p(1-p)$, which is what I did.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:38
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Let there be $m$ men and $w$ women (unfortunately, I also have to assume there are also $0$ non-binary people in this population). We have the following:
$$frac m w=thetarightarrow m=theta w$$
Thus, the probabilities of being a man or a woman are:
$$P(man)=frac{m}{m+w}=frac{theta w}{theta w+w}=frac{theta}{theta+1}$$
$$P(woman)=frac{w}{m+w}=frac{w}{theta w+w}=frac{1}{theta+1}$$
Now, we are also given the following:
$$P(colorblind | man)=q^2$$
$$P(colorblind | woman)=q$$
Then, we can use the formula $P(A cap B)=P(B)P(A|B)$ to find the following:
$$P(colorblind cap man)=P(man)P(colorblind | man)=frac{q^2theta}{theta+1}$$
$$P(colorblind cap woman)=P(woman)P(colorblind | woman)=frac{q}{theta+1}$$
Finally, since man and woman are the only two cases in this population, $woman=man^C$—that is, woman is the complement case of man. Thus, we can use the formula $P(A)=P(A cap B)+P(A cap B^C)$ to find:
$$P(colorblind)=P(colorblind cap man)+P(colorblind cap woman)=frac{q^2theta+q}{theta+1}$$
And of course, to find the probability is not colorblind, we use $P(A^C)=1-P(A)$:
$$P(colorblind^C)=1-P(colorblind)=frac{(1-q^2)theta+1-q}{theta+1}$$
Now, the probability that at least one person is colorblind has three cases in it:
- Both people are colorblind -> $P(colorblind)^2$
- First person is colorblind, second person is not -> $P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C)$
- Second person is colorblind, first person is not -> $P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C)$
Thus, to find the total probability of there being one color blind person, we just add up all of these cases:
$$P(at least one colorblind)=P(colorblind)^2+2P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C) \=frac{(q^2theta+q)^2+2(q^2theta+q)(theta(1-q^2)+1-q)}{(theta+1)^2}$$
I'll leave doing the algebra to you. Good luck!
$endgroup$
1
$begingroup$
To complete the problem, assume the sampling is independent. Then $P(text{at least one colorblind})=1-P(text{not colorblind})^2=1-[1-P(text{colorblind})]^2$
$endgroup$
– M. Nestor
Dec 28 '18 at 22:31
$begingroup$
One more question. This was the answer that I found when I was picking one person and finding the probability of whether he/she is colorblind. So, it remains the same even after I choose two people?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:33
$begingroup$
@butterflyflyaway Sorry, see my new edited answer for the actual, final answer of the probability of at least one person being color blind.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:36
$begingroup$
@M.Nestor This is a valid solution, but it is equivalent to $1-(1-p)^2=1-(p^2+1-2p)=2p-p^2=p^2+2p-2p^2=p^2+2p(1-p)$, which is what I did.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:38
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Let there be $m$ men and $w$ women (unfortunately, I also have to assume there are also $0$ non-binary people in this population). We have the following:
$$frac m w=thetarightarrow m=theta w$$
Thus, the probabilities of being a man or a woman are:
$$P(man)=frac{m}{m+w}=frac{theta w}{theta w+w}=frac{theta}{theta+1}$$
$$P(woman)=frac{w}{m+w}=frac{w}{theta w+w}=frac{1}{theta+1}$$
Now, we are also given the following:
$$P(colorblind | man)=q^2$$
$$P(colorblind | woman)=q$$
Then, we can use the formula $P(A cap B)=P(B)P(A|B)$ to find the following:
$$P(colorblind cap man)=P(man)P(colorblind | man)=frac{q^2theta}{theta+1}$$
$$P(colorblind cap woman)=P(woman)P(colorblind | woman)=frac{q}{theta+1}$$
Finally, since man and woman are the only two cases in this population, $woman=man^C$—that is, woman is the complement case of man. Thus, we can use the formula $P(A)=P(A cap B)+P(A cap B^C)$ to find:
$$P(colorblind)=P(colorblind cap man)+P(colorblind cap woman)=frac{q^2theta+q}{theta+1}$$
And of course, to find the probability is not colorblind, we use $P(A^C)=1-P(A)$:
$$P(colorblind^C)=1-P(colorblind)=frac{(1-q^2)theta+1-q}{theta+1}$$
Now, the probability that at least one person is colorblind has three cases in it:
- Both people are colorblind -> $P(colorblind)^2$
- First person is colorblind, second person is not -> $P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C)$
- Second person is colorblind, first person is not -> $P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C)$
Thus, to find the total probability of there being one color blind person, we just add up all of these cases:
$$P(at least one colorblind)=P(colorblind)^2+2P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C) \=frac{(q^2theta+q)^2+2(q^2theta+q)(theta(1-q^2)+1-q)}{(theta+1)^2}$$
I'll leave doing the algebra to you. Good luck!
$endgroup$
Let there be $m$ men and $w$ women (unfortunately, I also have to assume there are also $0$ non-binary people in this population). We have the following:
$$frac m w=thetarightarrow m=theta w$$
Thus, the probabilities of being a man or a woman are:
$$P(man)=frac{m}{m+w}=frac{theta w}{theta w+w}=frac{theta}{theta+1}$$
$$P(woman)=frac{w}{m+w}=frac{w}{theta w+w}=frac{1}{theta+1}$$
Now, we are also given the following:
$$P(colorblind | man)=q^2$$
$$P(colorblind | woman)=q$$
Then, we can use the formula $P(A cap B)=P(B)P(A|B)$ to find the following:
$$P(colorblind cap man)=P(man)P(colorblind | man)=frac{q^2theta}{theta+1}$$
$$P(colorblind cap woman)=P(woman)P(colorblind | woman)=frac{q}{theta+1}$$
Finally, since man and woman are the only two cases in this population, $woman=man^C$—that is, woman is the complement case of man. Thus, we can use the formula $P(A)=P(A cap B)+P(A cap B^C)$ to find:
$$P(colorblind)=P(colorblind cap man)+P(colorblind cap woman)=frac{q^2theta+q}{theta+1}$$
And of course, to find the probability is not colorblind, we use $P(A^C)=1-P(A)$:
$$P(colorblind^C)=1-P(colorblind)=frac{(1-q^2)theta+1-q}{theta+1}$$
Now, the probability that at least one person is colorblind has three cases in it:
- Both people are colorblind -> $P(colorblind)^2$
- First person is colorblind, second person is not -> $P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C)$
- Second person is colorblind, first person is not -> $P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C)$
Thus, to find the total probability of there being one color blind person, we just add up all of these cases:
$$P(at least one colorblind)=P(colorblind)^2+2P(colorblind)cdot P(colorblind^C) \=frac{(q^2theta+q)^2+2(q^2theta+q)(theta(1-q^2)+1-q)}{(theta+1)^2}$$
I'll leave doing the algebra to you. Good luck!
edited Dec 28 '18 at 22:36
answered Dec 28 '18 at 22:29
Noble MushtakNoble Mushtak
15.4k1835
15.4k1835
1
$begingroup$
To complete the problem, assume the sampling is independent. Then $P(text{at least one colorblind})=1-P(text{not colorblind})^2=1-[1-P(text{colorblind})]^2$
$endgroup$
– M. Nestor
Dec 28 '18 at 22:31
$begingroup$
One more question. This was the answer that I found when I was picking one person and finding the probability of whether he/she is colorblind. So, it remains the same even after I choose two people?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:33
$begingroup$
@butterflyflyaway Sorry, see my new edited answer for the actual, final answer of the probability of at least one person being color blind.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:36
$begingroup$
@M.Nestor This is a valid solution, but it is equivalent to $1-(1-p)^2=1-(p^2+1-2p)=2p-p^2=p^2+2p-2p^2=p^2+2p(1-p)$, which is what I did.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:38
add a comment |
1
$begingroup$
To complete the problem, assume the sampling is independent. Then $P(text{at least one colorblind})=1-P(text{not colorblind})^2=1-[1-P(text{colorblind})]^2$
$endgroup$
– M. Nestor
Dec 28 '18 at 22:31
$begingroup$
One more question. This was the answer that I found when I was picking one person and finding the probability of whether he/she is colorblind. So, it remains the same even after I choose two people?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:33
$begingroup$
@butterflyflyaway Sorry, see my new edited answer for the actual, final answer of the probability of at least one person being color blind.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:36
$begingroup$
@M.Nestor This is a valid solution, but it is equivalent to $1-(1-p)^2=1-(p^2+1-2p)=2p-p^2=p^2+2p-2p^2=p^2+2p(1-p)$, which is what I did.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:38
1
1
$begingroup$
To complete the problem, assume the sampling is independent. Then $P(text{at least one colorblind})=1-P(text{not colorblind})^2=1-[1-P(text{colorblind})]^2$
$endgroup$
– M. Nestor
Dec 28 '18 at 22:31
$begingroup$
To complete the problem, assume the sampling is independent. Then $P(text{at least one colorblind})=1-P(text{not colorblind})^2=1-[1-P(text{colorblind})]^2$
$endgroup$
– M. Nestor
Dec 28 '18 at 22:31
$begingroup$
One more question. This was the answer that I found when I was picking one person and finding the probability of whether he/she is colorblind. So, it remains the same even after I choose two people?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:33
$begingroup$
One more question. This was the answer that I found when I was picking one person and finding the probability of whether he/she is colorblind. So, it remains the same even after I choose two people?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:33
$begingroup$
@butterflyflyaway Sorry, see my new edited answer for the actual, final answer of the probability of at least one person being color blind.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:36
$begingroup$
@butterflyflyaway Sorry, see my new edited answer for the actual, final answer of the probability of at least one person being color blind.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:36
$begingroup$
@M.Nestor This is a valid solution, but it is equivalent to $1-(1-p)^2=1-(p^2+1-2p)=2p-p^2=p^2+2p-2p^2=p^2+2p(1-p)$, which is what I did.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:38
$begingroup$
@M.Nestor This is a valid solution, but it is equivalent to $1-(1-p)^2=1-(p^2+1-2p)=2p-p^2=p^2+2p-2p^2=p^2+2p(1-p)$, which is what I did.
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:38
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$begingroup$
To be clear, there are $theta$ men for every $1$ woman, correct?
$endgroup$
– Noble Mushtak
Dec 28 '18 at 22:20
1
$begingroup$
No, what I mean is P(A)/ P(A') = θ , where A is that the subject is male. (So I guess, men/women= θ)
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:22
$begingroup$
Condition the complement of your event on the number of females sampled: 0, 1, or 2.
$endgroup$
– Laars Helenius
Dec 28 '18 at 22:26
$begingroup$
Why only on females though?
$endgroup$
– butterflyflyaway
Dec 28 '18 at 22:27