Hidden Markov model in Credit risk modeling











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Could you please help me to understand what is a standard (multinomial) logistic link function between $X_{t}$ and the entries of $Q_{t}$ used in 'Modeling Portfolio Defaults using Hidden Markov Models with Covariates', which were written by Konrad Banachewicz and Aad van der Vaart, André Lucas. The entries of $Q_{t}$ are
$$q_{ij,t}=frac{expleft(Phi_{ij}^{'}X_{t}+eta_{ij}right)}{sumlimits_{j=1}^{N}expleft(Phi_{ij}^{'}X_{t}+eta_{ij}right)}.$$



I do not know why $q_{ij,t}$ is defined in this way and what are the variables $Phi_{ij}$ and $eta_{ij}$...



Also I wrote the program in C++, which should check if the procedure described in this paper is fine - Expectation-Maximization (EM). In program at the begining the observation sequence, hidden states sequence, transition matrix $Q_{t}$ together with the distribution of the initial state $P(W_{1} = i) = pi_{i}$ and matrix $B$ are generated by pseudorandom numbers generator. Then the initial parameters of the model are generated again and
and procedure changing parameters is performed until we get the convergence with the original parameters - here we using the observation sequence generated at the begining - it is fixed. I do know why the program does not find at the end
similar parameters to the original ones.... Can it be that the model is not convergent or I am doing something wrong?



Thank you for your help!










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    Could you please help me to understand what is a standard (multinomial) logistic link function between $X_{t}$ and the entries of $Q_{t}$ used in 'Modeling Portfolio Defaults using Hidden Markov Models with Covariates', which were written by Konrad Banachewicz and Aad van der Vaart, André Lucas. The entries of $Q_{t}$ are
    $$q_{ij,t}=frac{expleft(Phi_{ij}^{'}X_{t}+eta_{ij}right)}{sumlimits_{j=1}^{N}expleft(Phi_{ij}^{'}X_{t}+eta_{ij}right)}.$$



    I do not know why $q_{ij,t}$ is defined in this way and what are the variables $Phi_{ij}$ and $eta_{ij}$...



    Also I wrote the program in C++, which should check if the procedure described in this paper is fine - Expectation-Maximization (EM). In program at the begining the observation sequence, hidden states sequence, transition matrix $Q_{t}$ together with the distribution of the initial state $P(W_{1} = i) = pi_{i}$ and matrix $B$ are generated by pseudorandom numbers generator. Then the initial parameters of the model are generated again and
    and procedure changing parameters is performed until we get the convergence with the original parameters - here we using the observation sequence generated at the begining - it is fixed. I do know why the program does not find at the end
    similar parameters to the original ones.... Can it be that the model is not convergent or I am doing something wrong?



    Thank you for your help!










    share|cite|improve this question


























      up vote
      0
      down vote

      favorite









      up vote
      0
      down vote

      favorite











      Could you please help me to understand what is a standard (multinomial) logistic link function between $X_{t}$ and the entries of $Q_{t}$ used in 'Modeling Portfolio Defaults using Hidden Markov Models with Covariates', which were written by Konrad Banachewicz and Aad van der Vaart, André Lucas. The entries of $Q_{t}$ are
      $$q_{ij,t}=frac{expleft(Phi_{ij}^{'}X_{t}+eta_{ij}right)}{sumlimits_{j=1}^{N}expleft(Phi_{ij}^{'}X_{t}+eta_{ij}right)}.$$



      I do not know why $q_{ij,t}$ is defined in this way and what are the variables $Phi_{ij}$ and $eta_{ij}$...



      Also I wrote the program in C++, which should check if the procedure described in this paper is fine - Expectation-Maximization (EM). In program at the begining the observation sequence, hidden states sequence, transition matrix $Q_{t}$ together with the distribution of the initial state $P(W_{1} = i) = pi_{i}$ and matrix $B$ are generated by pseudorandom numbers generator. Then the initial parameters of the model are generated again and
      and procedure changing parameters is performed until we get the convergence with the original parameters - here we using the observation sequence generated at the begining - it is fixed. I do know why the program does not find at the end
      similar parameters to the original ones.... Can it be that the model is not convergent or I am doing something wrong?



      Thank you for your help!










      share|cite|improve this question















      Could you please help me to understand what is a standard (multinomial) logistic link function between $X_{t}$ and the entries of $Q_{t}$ used in 'Modeling Portfolio Defaults using Hidden Markov Models with Covariates', which were written by Konrad Banachewicz and Aad van der Vaart, André Lucas. The entries of $Q_{t}$ are
      $$q_{ij,t}=frac{expleft(Phi_{ij}^{'}X_{t}+eta_{ij}right)}{sumlimits_{j=1}^{N}expleft(Phi_{ij}^{'}X_{t}+eta_{ij}right)}.$$



      I do not know why $q_{ij,t}$ is defined in this way and what are the variables $Phi_{ij}$ and $eta_{ij}$...



      Also I wrote the program in C++, which should check if the procedure described in this paper is fine - Expectation-Maximization (EM). In program at the begining the observation sequence, hidden states sequence, transition matrix $Q_{t}$ together with the distribution of the initial state $P(W_{1} = i) = pi_{i}$ and matrix $B$ are generated by pseudorandom numbers generator. Then the initial parameters of the model are generated again and
      and procedure changing parameters is performed until we get the convergence with the original parameters - here we using the observation sequence generated at the begining - it is fixed. I do know why the program does not find at the end
      similar parameters to the original ones.... Can it be that the model is not convergent or I am doing something wrong?



      Thank you for your help!







      finance






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      edited 7 hours ago









      Davide Giraudo

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      124k16149253










      asked Nov 18 at 17:58









      Iwona Grabowska

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