Vrftsjtryk

Given the state space $S={1,2}$ and the transition matrix for
the two-state chain is given by

$$mathbf{P}=begin{pmatrix} 1-p & q \ p & 1-q end{pmatrix},$$

where $p$ and $q$ are not both $0$. Let $T$ be the first return time
to state $1$, for the chain started in $1$.

a) Show that $mathbb{P}(Tgeq n)=p(1-q)^{n-2},$ for $ngeq 2.$

b) Find $mathbb{E}[T]$ and verify that $mathbb{E}[T]=1/pi_1$ where $pi$ is the stationary distribution of the chain.

a) Since this is a discrete case, we have that

$$mathbb{P}(Tgeq n)=1-mathbb{P}(Tleq n)=1-(mathbb{P}(T=2)+ ... +mathbb{P}(T=n)),$$

but how do I compute the $mathbb{P}(T=k)$?

b) If I can obtain an expression for $mathbb{P}(T> n)$, and given that $T$ is a discrete random variable, i can compute this expectation as

$$mathbb{E}[T]=sum_{k=2}^{n}mathbb{P}(T>k),$$

is this correct? If it is, then I only need help to proceed with a).

$T$ is a random variable taking values in the non-negative integers and infinity(the chain never returns to one).

In this case, we have the formula : $mathbb E[T] = sum_{k=1}^infty P(T geq k)$. Therefore, from part $a$ one can obtain the result of part $b$.

As for part $a$ itself, naturally $T geq n$ if and only if the chain is in state two from time $2$ to at least time $n-1$. This is by definition of what first return time means : the first return time to $1$ starting from $1$ is greater than or equal to $n$, if and only if the chain does not go to state $1$ from time $2$ to $n-1$, if and only if (in our case) the chain is in state two from time $2$ to time $n-1$.

Your comment does not apply : if the transition $1to 1$ occurs, then the chain will have returned to state $1$ at time $1$, so the return time is $1$. Remember, the first return time does not take into account repeats and then leaving and coming back : a repeat is a return time of $1$.

But, for the chain to be in state two from time $2$ to $n-1$ it has to transition like :
$$
1 xrightarrow{1} 2 xrightarrow{2} 2 xrightarrow{3} 2 xrightarrow{4} ... xrightarrow{n-2} 2 xrightarrow{n-1} mbox{anywhere}
$$

which means that the desired probability is the probability that the given transitions occur in that order, which is easily seen to be probability of $1 to 2$, which is $q$, times probability of $2 to 2$ exactly $n-2$ times, which is $(1-q)$. This results in $q times (1-q)^{n-2}$.

Therefore, by our expectation formula, the expected return time is $P(T geq 1) + sum_{k=2}^infty P(T geq k)$, which leads to $1 + qsum_{n=2}^infty(1-q)^{n-2}$ (The splitting of $k = 1$ and $kgeq 2$ is important here : $T geq 1$ happens with probability $1$). By the geometric series formula, this equals $1+frac qq = 2$.

Now, the stationary distribution for the given Markov chain can be found by definition of a stationary distribution: $$(pi_1,pi_2) = ((1-p)pi_1+ppi_2,qpi_1+(1-q)pi_2)$$

Noting that $pi_1+pi_2 = 1$ allows us to get $pi = (frac 12,frac 12)$. Verify part $b$ from here.